Review Article |
Corresponding author: Nikolai A. Sobolev ( sobolev@ua.pt ) © 2024 Nikolai A. Sobolev.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Sobolev NA (2024) Energy, demand for computing power and the Green World. Modern Electronic Materials 10(2): 127-142. https://doi.org/10.3897/j.moem.10.2.131698
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The review looks at the main trends in global energy production and consumption over the last half century, based on P.L. Kapitza’s 1975 analysis using a unified approach based on the Umov–Poynting vector. Such aspects of the problem as the impact of energy consumption on gross national product per capita, reasons for different approaches of countries to the transition to renewable energy sources, existing sources of energy, global distribution of its production and consumption, features and prospects of different energy technologies, as well as technologies to reduce energy consumption are touched upon. Thus, since 1975, the price of one kilowatt-hour of "solar" electricity has fallen by orders of magnitude and this technology has moved to the forefront, while fusion still remains the "energy of the future" and coal continues to hold its position in the market. Somewhat unexpectedly, electronics and telecommunications have become a major consumer of energy, urging a shift from von Neumann architecture to neuromorphic technology in computers and the development of femto and attowatt optoelectronics. And a totally unforeseen energy consumer has been cryptocurrency mining. On the other hand, the harvesting of dissipated energy in a variety of ways is seen as an environmentally friendly alternative to the use of batteries in low and ultra-low-power devices.
energy production, energy consumption, energy harvesting
Back in 1975, the eminent Soviet physicist P.L. Kapitza, formerly a disciple of E. Rutherford and then Nobel Laureate in 1978, delivered a presentation later published in [
Let us first look at the relationship between energy consumption and GNP per capita today. Figure
Let us now turn to the terminology used by the UN: "Renewable energy is energy derived from natural sources that are replenished at a higher rate than they are consumed. Sunlight and wind, for example, are such sources that are constantly being replenished. ... Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – on the other hand, are non-renewable resources that take hundreds of millions of years to form. Fossil fuels, when burned to produce energy, cause harmful greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide" [
It would seem that everything is clear: mankind must urgently switch to renewable energy sources. In reality, everything is not so simple and obvious [
Figure
Another disadvantage of fossil fuels is the low energy efficiency (less than 28%) characteristic of internal combustion engines, in contrast to the very high efficiency of the electric motor, exceeding 93%, which allows significant energy savings [
GNP per capita versus energy consumption in 2015. Source: Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-use-per-capita-vs-gdp-per-capita (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Relative contribution of different sources to global electricity production in 2022. Source: Dickert C. What Electricity Sources Power the World? September 10, 2023. https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/what-electricity-sources-power-the-world/ (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Similarly, there is, for example, a huge difference in efficiency between gas boilers and heat pumps: using the latter helps to save energy and reduce CO2 emissions. Except that installing a heat pump is very expensive [
So, to save our planet and humanity from the negative effects of climate change, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG), especially CO2, emissions, i.e. to carry out so-called decarbonization. This requires new alternative technologies that fulfil a number of requirements:
The proportion of the world population living in cities will increase from the actual 55% to 68% in 2050, thus, urban decarbonization becomes all-important to avoid the undesirable impact on the climate [
The decarbonization process implies the gradual involvement of renewable sources in energy production. Figure
Not for all countries, tackling global warming is a top energy policy priority, as recorded in the final document of the G20 Energy Transitions Ministers’ Meeting in Goa, India, 22 July 2023: “The energy sector’s contribution to global GHG emissions is significant. Given that fossil fuels currently continue to play a significant role in the global energy mix, eradication of energy poverty, and meeting the growing energy demand, the importance of making efforts towards phasing down unabated fossil fuels, in line with different national circumstances was emphasized by some members while others had different views on the matter that abatement and removal technologies will address such concerns" [
To understand the source of the controversy, one needs only look at Figs
Now let us look at the development of alternative (i.e. renewable) energy production in different countries (Fig.
Energy use per person in different countries in 2022. Source: Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/energy#explore-data-on-energy (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Access to electrical energy in different countries in 2020. Source: Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/energy#explore-data-on-energy (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Change in annual renewable energy production by country in 2022 compared to 2021. Source: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy. 2023. https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review (accessed on 10.04.2024).
We see that some countries are increasing renewable energy production while others are reducing it. The most mixed picture is found on the European continent. Figure
An interesting and telling exception is Sweden, where GNP per capita growth since 1995 has been achieved with a slight decrease in energy consumption (Fig.
By the way, thinking activity also requires energy expenditure and a lot of it: with an average brain weight of 1350 g, it consumes from 9–10% at rest to 25% (some sources say up to 60% [
What is the case with electronic "brains" in this sense? In Ref. [
What's even more interesting is that machine learning (ML) tends, in the limit, to consume all the power produced in the world, and this development model is costly, inefficient and unsustainable. The power consumption figures are becoming daunting. At the 2022 Design Automation Conference, a slide was shown (Fig.
Number of renewable energy patents by country since 2000. Source: Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/patents-for-renewables-by-country?tab=chart (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Change in energy use versus changes in GNP per capita in Sweden since 1995. Source: Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/change-energy-gdp-per-capita (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Projection of energy expenditure on computing compared to its global production up to 2050. Source: Bailey B. AI power consumption exploding. August 15, 2022. Semiconductor Engineering. https://semiengineering.com/ai-power-consumption-exploding/?cmid=1c9a6ebe-071d-4b5f-9433-f084336b9289 (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Another well-known computerised energy eater is cryptocurrency mining. It is estimated that bitcoin alone devours 127 TWh per year, which exceeds the energy consumption of many countries, e.g. Norway. In the United States, cryptocurrency business emits between 25 and 50 million tons of CO2 per year – comparable to the emissions from the burning of diesel fuel by American railways [
Another cause for concern is Bitcoin’s water footprint which has skyrocketed recently. As compared with 2020, in 2021 it grew by a factor of 2.66, from 591 Gl to 1,574 Gl (from 5,231 l to 16,279 l per transaction, respectively). Bitcoin's water footprint is estimated to be 2,237 Gl in 2023 [
In 2020, about 50% of the worldwide bitcoin farms were in China [
We can cite other data that are in agreement with the described trend [
Power and cooling infrastructure costs have now exceeded the cost of raw IT equipment [
To understand where savings can be made, it is interesting to look at the orders of magnitude of energy costs associated with different technologies (Fig.
Optoelectronic technologies for low-energy information processing and communications (Figure plotted by Alan Wang according to the data from D.A.B. Miller, 2017 [
To summarize: energy consumption is frighteningly high and growing. So what are the possible solutions?
Obvious answers:
– to produce more (negative consequences: global warming, pollution
– to consume less (be careful, on this path, it is possible to slow down technological progress and reduce the standard of living of the population).
With regard to the first point, it is time to return to the analysis of P.L. Kapitza [
The Umov–Poynting vector U describes the energy flux density. In a medium, U is restricted by the expression U < υF, where υ is the deformation propagation velocity, and F may be any elastic or thermal energy [
Looking ahead, we note that, when we seek high-power applications, the restrictions on the Umov–Pointing vector exclude many energy technologies that are otherwise quite effective! But let us go in order, following P.L. Kapitza
Geothermal energy. Its advantages include inexhaustible energy reserves and the ability to generate energy 24 h a day, 365 days a year. The main disadvantage is the limitations imposed by the low thermal conductivity of rocks resulting in a low energy flow density.
Hydro energy is generated by damming rivers and utilizing tides and allows efficient conversion of gravitational energy into mechanical energy. In addition, hydroelectric power plants allow for rapid variation in the power delivered to the grid, compensating for the volatility of other sources. The main disadvantage is that damming rivers is favourable only in mountainous regions where the potential energy per unit area of the water reservoir is high. On plains, dams do not justify themselves either economically or environmentally, especially when it comes to flooding fertile land. What concerns tidal energy, tidal power plants are only profitable in places where the tides are high enough, and there are not many such places.
Wind power is environmentally safe (nowadays there are some doubts, which we will not dwell on now). The obvious drawbacks are insufficient energy flow density and instability of the generated power.
Thanks to large uranium reserves, nuclear energy can meet the energy needs of mankind for millennia. However, the safe storage of nuclear waste is problematic (an example: the Kyshtym disaster). The threats of reactor accidents (examples: Chalk River, Three Mile Island, Chornobyl, Fukushima – all at least partially caused by human error), large-scale plutonium proliferation and the associated risk of nuclear terrorism, as well as sabotage or war are always present. Increased international control may be a possible solution.
P.L. Kapitza considered nuclear power to be the most promising [
Thermonuclear fusion is an inexhaustible source of energy due to deuterium reserves in the oceans. In addition, virtually no radioactive waste is generated, there is little danger in the event of reactor failure, and no explosives are produced for the bomb. Unfortunately, the plasma is heated by the application of an electric field, so almost all the energy goes to the electrons, which, because of their low mass, transfer energy poorly to the ions in collisions. Most of the electrons' energy is lost to bremsstrahlung.
It should be noted that despite considerable efforts worldwide since the middle of the last century, there is still no fusion plant that produces more energy than it consumes to operate. For 70 years now, thermonuclear energy has remained the "energy of the future". And estimates show that fusion will hardly be a competitive technology even beyond 2040 [
Direct transformation of chemical energy into mechanical energy (as it occurs in muscles) is a clean technology. However, energy density is limited by the slow diffusion processes in biological membranes or on the surface of muscle fibres. This is why the Industrial Revolution happened – machines replaced human and animal muscle power.
Fuel cells also represent a clean technology (no emission of CO2), directly transforming chemical energy released during the oxidation of hydrogen into electrical energy. Even more, it exhibits high efficiency for obtaining electrical energy (above 65% for proton-exchange membrane fuel cells and even greater than 85% for solid oxide fuel cells) [
There are various technologies to obtain hydrogen. The most widespread is the electrolysis of water producing hydrogen and oxygen. In addition, according to a recent model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the natural hydrogen produced by water reacting with rocks deep inside the Earth could be enough to meet growing global demand for thousands of years [
It is important to note that hydrogen meets modern requirements for possible fuels, having an energy density of 33.3 kWh/kg [
Solar energy for water splitting and hydrogen generation is another clean technology (but there are doubts). Unfortunately, there still is no viable technology for industrial applications [
Solar energy for photovoltaics is the Holy Grail Cup for power engineers. It is considered a clean technology (but there are doubts – the technology of silicon solar cell production uses highly toxic substances, and the issue of solar panels recycling as they reach the end of their useful life is getting ever more challenging [
Earlier the high cost of solar energy was a serious problem (in 1975 even P.L. Kapitza did not know how to make it economically viable [
In 2022, photovoltaics accounted for 4.5% of global electricity production (see Fig.
The first solar cell (SC) invented in 1954 was based on a p–n junction [
To conquer the main drawback of solar energy, its intermittency, the scientific community spent several decades investigating Space-based solar power (SBSP), in which orbiting satellites would collect energy 24/7 and 365 days.
In June 2023, Caltech's space solar power project (SSPP) team announced that their space prototype called the space solar power demonstrator (SSPD-1) transmitted the produced energy to microwave receivers installed on a roof of the Caltech campus in Pasadena, California. According to Science Alert [
In order not to be further distracted by a detailed description of the state of affairs in SC research and development, I will only show the historical development of the record values of quantum efficiency of SCs, starting from 1975 (Fig.
Development of prices per watt for conventional solar cells (c-Si) since 1977. Source: Solar cell. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Over the past ten years, the maximum efficiency of multi-junction cells has increased from about 35% to 47.1%. The best laboratory designs need about two years to arrive on the market. Source: Photovoltaic Research. https://www.nrel.gov/pv/cell-efficiency.html (accessed on 10.04.2024).
Energy costs for processing and transmitting data around the world are high, so there is an urgent need to develop respective energy-efficient devices.
Tensor processing units (TPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) use the traditional von Neumann architecture: Information processing and storage are performed by different processor blocks: computation – in cores, storage – in main memory, one memory block for several dozens or hundreds of cores. This requires frequent data exchange between cores and memory, which causes a relatively high power consumption and low energy efficiency (energy per frame) of data processing: typical values of heat dissipation from a modern GPU are 200–300 W with a performance of about 1013 operations (multiplication-addition/write to buffer/erase, etc.) per second (10 TFLOPS).
So what are the ways to reduce energy consumption in IT? Here are a few possibilities.
In 2023, a chip with a neural-inspired architecture, called NorthPole, has been proposed [
The compute-in-memory (CIM) architectures are characterized by the elimination of the data transfer between processor and memory, thus accelerating computing and minimizing energy consumption. But even in a CIM architecture, transistors degrade data access time due to the need for a large number of wires in the chip circuitry, thus wasting more time, space, and energy than is desirable for neuromorphic computing (see below).
The transistor-free CIM design proposed recently [
Another alternative to conventional electronics is to utilize the properties of spin rather than charge. This field, known as semiconductor spintronics [
Quantum computing is based on swapping digital bits for qubits. Quantum computers can be used in quantum cryptography, quantum machine learning, molecular modelling and other areas where conventional processors are inefficient. On the other hand, quantum computers are unlikely to replace classical computers in a number of traditional applications. To date, quantum computers have not yet left the laboratory, so their total contribution to global energy consumption is negligible.
The main path of computer technology development is undoubtedly the transition to the neuromorphic architecture of computing systems [
– convergence of information processing and storage units (i.e. CIM);
– matrix-vector multiplication by memristors for energy-efficient artificial intelligence systems [
– hardware execution of weighting factors between neurons (synaptic analogues) based on arrays of memristors, multilevel or even analogue cells of electrically rewritable memory (ReRAM);
– operating at low frequencies while maintaining computational speed (biological neural networks operate at very low frequencies (from units to hundreds of hertz) compared to traditional processors);
– the ability to (self-)learn, i.e. to self-organise or fine-tune additional multi-digit or analogue synaptic scales for target tasks (computer vision, hearing, autonomous control, etc.).
"Green" photonics is the development and application of optoelectronics technology with record high energy efficiency (see Fig.
Integration of data-driven approaches with power hardware onboard for system monitoring, dynamic adaptation, and prognostic health management (PHM) can be achieved by mission-profile-centric design techniques collectively referred to as "Edge Intelligence" [
On the way to the Green World, power converters are playing an increasing role in energy systems. According to the US Department of Energy, by 2030 more than 80% of electricity will go through power converters [
Energy harvesting (EH) or energy scavenging is the process of extracting otherwise wasted energy from sources such as wind, electromagnetic waves, solar light, parasitic vibrations or body motion, to name just a few.
Currently, countless Internet of Things (IoT) devices are powered by batteries. However, the devices could either scavenge energy on their own or receive it from outside. This would allow them to operate virtually perpetually [
There are several energy harvesting technologies for low-power applications.
Light, heat, wind, vibrations, radio waves and other energy sources have seen limited use in small devices so far [
To get an idea of the power required, it is worth looking at the power consumption of medical implants, Table
Implant type | Power consumption (μW) |
Heart pacemaker | 30–100 |
Heart defibrillator | 30–100 |
Nero pacemaker | 30 – ~1000 |
Pump for medicament feed | 100–2000 |
Cochlear implants | 10000 |
The most typical technology for harvesting dispersed energy is the use of the piezoelectric (PE) effect. The corresponding energy is generated by a coupling between mechanical deformation and electrical polarization in certain crystals. The required deformation can arise from a wide variety of sources such as periodic and aperiodic motion, seismic or motor vibrations, acoustic noise, and many others. (Here we should not forget about the law of conservation of energy – a piezoelectric generator in the sole of running shoes will make a runner expend more muscle energy).
This source can deliver energy for miscellaneous EH applications. The smallest generators (up to 50 μW) could supply energy to ultra-low-power modules [
Ambient radiofrequency (RF) radiation exists in both natural and man-made environments. However, the power obtainable from most ambient RF sources is very low. A thinkable solution is antenna farms which can collect sufficient energy [
Thermoelectric generators (TEGs) comprise junctions of two different materials subjected to a temperature gradient. The thermoelectric EMF does not exceed 100 to 200 μV/K per junction [
Pyroelectric nanogenerators. The change of spontaneous polarization of a material with temperature fluctuation leads to the appearance of reversed charges at opposite ends of a pyroelectric crystal. The phenomenon is called the pyroelectric (PyE) effect and is specific to anisotropic dielectric crystals with certain symmetries. It can be observed in single crystals, ceramics, composites, inorganic films, organic materials, and polymers. The pyroelectric materials are necessarily also piezoelectric.
PyE nanogenerators consist of three parts: a bottom metal electrode, a middle layer made of a PyE material, and an upper electrode connected to the heat source [
The PyE effect has traditionally been used for the manufacturing of sensitive infrared radiation detectors, shock wave sensors, and precise voltage and temperature variation meters. Recently also the potential of the PyE effect for thermal energy harvesting has been recognized [
Biomechanical sources. A part of the mechanical and thermal energy produced by the human body can be harvested [
Even such ultra-low-power sources as the human breath propelling a mini wind turbine, or voice box vibrations can be harnessed [
Triboelectric nanogenerators (TENGs) can transform mechanical energy present in the environment into electrical energy by combining the effects of contact electrification and electrostatic induction. Recently, the output electrical current of TENGs has improved dramatically, changing from AC to DC, increasing from ∼nA to ∼μA and even ∼mA, and raising power density from ∼mW/m2 to ∼W/m2. Semiconductor DC TENGs have appeared in researchers' fields of vision to adapt to the trend of miniaturization and integration with current semiconductor electronic devices, which are more appropriate for developing small electronic devices than traditional polymer TENGs [
Beta-voltaic generators. Radioactive isotope-based power supplies offer advantages such as small size, light weight, wide operating temperature range, long lifetime and high reliability. Beta-voltaic cells can be manufactured in a single technological process together with semiconductor MEMSs [
Magnetoelectric and hybrid devices. The direct magnetoelectric effect (MEE) consists of the appearance of electric polarization in a material exposed to a magnetic field. The MEE is much more pronounced in composite materials than in single-phase ones (i.e., multiferroics), so only the former ones have found application in EH. Composite ME materials include both PE and magnetostrictive (MS) materials. The mechanism of direct MEE is as follows: The MS material is strained due to magnetostriction in an applied magnetic field. Part of this elongation / compression is then transferred to the PE component, resulting in the induction of macroscopic electric polarization due to the PE effect. The harvesting of the energy of strayed AC magnetic fields by MEE can be combined with other harvesting mechanisms, such as the PE mechanism [
Another example of hybrid devices can be electromagnetic-triboelectric generators that convert the energy of mechanical movement into electricity [
Embedded systems are becoming ever more common in our daily lives. Programmable microchips that underpin household appliances, computers and security systems can be powered, at least in part, by EH systems instead of batteries or supercapacitors [
Some interesting developments have been occurring also in other areas, e.g., biology. Back in 2008, researchers working at MIT studied the potential difference between plants and their surrounding soil [
The main property of the future is its unpredictability, so we don't know exactly which energy-harvesting technology will win the market, but research is ramping up to overcome the limitations of conventional batteries.
So, for the first time in its history, humanity is faced with the need to limit the use of the most efficient energy sources – fossil fuels. Climate change (global warming) is influenced not by the energy produced (we cannot yet directly heat the environment), but by the associated greenhouse effect caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Note that not all countries are willing to pay a higher price for energy from alternative (renewable) sources, primarily because they are severely short of energy as such.
Of the technologies reviewed by P.L. Kapitza in 1975 [
In terms of energy consumption, electronics and telecommunications have come to the forefront. New paradigms, such as neuromorphic computing, attowatt optoelectronics, etc., are being actively sought worldwide to enable technological progress without increasing energy consumption.
The author is grateful to Dieter Bimberg, who awakened his interest in the global energy issue, and to Gunnar Suchaneck and Alexey N. Mikhaylov for critical reading of the manuscript and comments made.
Funding sources
This study was supported by the project i3N (UIDB/50025/2020, UIDP/50025/2020 and LA/P/0037/2020) which was financed by national funds through the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) and the Ministério da Educação e Ciência (MEC) of Portugal.